THE (ir)REGULAR RANT
The minimum read for the maximum knowledge.
Look at me, sending an email on this date for the last three months. #goals! (#notthegoalsthatIwasaimingfor...)
As usual, do let me know if you have any suggestions of what I should cover/if you don't quite understand something you want to know more about.
Things are continuing to spiral downwards with Hong Kong and Sudan and Venezuela (oh my!), to name a few, too, so let me know if you'd like more info/updates.
Also, if you would like to share this with your friends, please do! You can also send them here.
Right - let's get into it!
——————-
Iran
So, what’s the deal with Iran?
Well, it’s hard to answer that question in a short email, because the relationship between Iran and the West (notably at the moment, Iran and the US) has quite a bit of history to it.
Then start from the start, Jess!
(Side note: if you don't want to start from the start - scroll down to the paragraph before the first Trump tweet. But go on, start from the start!)
Okay, okay – not quite The Start but the 1979 Iranian revolution saw pro-US leader Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi ousted for the anti-American Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Shortly after the coup, a revolutionary group of students took 60 American diplomats hostage for 444 days. (Side note: Argo is based on six of those hostages escaping to the Canadian embassy, then being smuggled out of the country)
Then, in the mid-80s (the best time in history – hello my birth!) when the Iran-Iraq conflict was on (from 1980-1988), the US supported the Iraqi side and Iran threatened to close and/or mine the Strait of Hormuz, which separates the Persian Gulf (and 40% of the world’s oil) from the Arabian Sea/the rest of the world. (Side note: If you have ever flown into Dubai, Abu Dhabi or Doha, you have likely flown over the Strait.)
The Strait of Hormuz, just south of Iran, through which 40% of the world's oil is transported.
During the Iraqi-Iranian war, the US continued to support the Iraqi regime (Saddam Hussain - you may remember him from when the US (and Australia!) went to waragainst his government) with money, weapons, chemicals and biological viruses, including anthrax and the bubonic plague, and throughout the eight years, there were several conflicts between Iran and the US, two I’ll note here:
In 1983 the US sold weapons to Iran in order to influence the release of hostages in Lebanon. So essentially, the US funded both sides of the war.
In 1988 the US shot down Iran Air Flight 655: a commercial plane with 290 civilians on board from six nations, including 66 children. The American Navy claimed that they mistook it for a warplane, as it was outside of civilian airspace. This was not true. They then claimed that the flight had not responded to radio calls. This was also not true: the plane did not have access to the channel that the Navy contacted them on. (Side note: The US has never apologised and the Navy men who commanded the ship that pulled the trigger received medals for acts of heroism).
So. There’s a bit of history there.
Yes.
So how do we get to where we are today?
Well, after the revolution, Iran was considered a terrorist state and sanctions were enforced. Bush Snr didn’t reduce sanctions as promised, despite the release of American hostages from Lebanon/Hezbollah. Then Clinton placed a total embargo on any trade with Iran in 1995, and in 1996 passed the Iran-Libya sanctions, which was meant to prevent other countries making up the shortfall from a loss of trade with the US. After September 11, the Iranian Supreme Leader condemned the attacks on the US and there was an outpouring of grief and sympathy from the country, however only four months later, Bush Jnr mentioned Iran as one of the Axis of Evil countries, causing widespread anger across the Iranian nation. During Bush’s second term, the US undertook covert operations inside Iran in order to destabilise the leadership, took Iranian diplomats hostage for 305 days, and several times refused talks instigated by Iran and the Swiss embassy to pacify the relationship.
What? I thought it was all about nuclear bombs?
Well, yes, partly. So, by 2006, Iran had enough unenriched uranium to make ten atomic bombs (enriched = atomic bombs, unenriched = still not ideal). And among several other initiatives the Obama administration undertook to smooth the relationship (although it certainly wasn’t all smooth sailing) was to instigate the Iran Nuclear Deal: an agreement between the US, UK, Russia, France, China, Germany & Iran that would see sanctions lifted against Iran if they promised to destroy/surrender their nuclear capabilities as well as allow the UN to inspect their nuclear sites as and when they pleased.
Win! And they all lived happily every after?
Not quite. The deal was working well and Iran had destroyed their reactors and stock holds of uranium, until Trump decided to pull the US out of the deal (as well as blocking travellers from Iran as part of the Muslim ban…) and reimpose sanctions. Apart from him stating that the deal ‘was the worst deal ever negotiated’ (side note: it was not), it is thought that the only reason he withdrew is because he hates Obama and he has vested interests in countries that oppose Iran (namely: Saudi Arabia & Israel). Ehhhh.
All other participating countries, and some who weren’t, warned of the dangers of the US withdrawing, but it fell on deaf ears.
Okay… but I still don’t understand… how did we arrive at the point where Iran is in the news every other day?
Well, the tension between the two countries has increased since Trump came to power, with both Iran and the US making poor decisions. Having said that, Iran only last month breached conditions of the Deal, in the hope of convincing the other signatories, as well as the EU, to continue trading with them at an increased level (to make up for the loss from US sanctions). The US have informed allies that if they trade with Iran, they will also be sanctioned.
So! In May, the US claimed that four oil tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and that Iran was at fault. Iran claims otherwise.
(Editor's note: I know that we're all immune to it, but this guy is the President of the United States, aka, the President of the Free World. And he tweets like this.)
Keep in mind: the intelligence regarding ‘weapons of mass destruction’ in Iraq was false. And since coming into power, the Trump government has exaggerated/downplayed foreign intelligence when it’s suited them, to the point that other allied countries no longer share full intelligence anymore. So – basically the other countries in the world are all ‘yeah, nah’ on the Iran threat.
So! In June, the US sent more troops to the Middle East based on evidence of an increasingly threatening Iran. Two more tankers were attacked and the US released grainy footage which didn’t show anything conclusive. Iran shot down a US drone that either a. entered Iranian territory; or b. didn’t enter Iranian territory.
🤷♀️
Trump then tweeted that he called off a retaliatory airstrike against Iran 10 minutes prior to launch because of potential casualties:
(Editor's note: We should not be immune to the President of the United States tweeting like this)
Then! In July, the UK seized an Iranian oil tanker in Gibraltar on suspicion that it was carrying oil to Syria (prohibited by EU sanctions). So then Iran seized a UAE ship and two British tankers (one has since been released) in the Strait of Hormuz. Then, the US claimed to have shot down an Iranian drone. Iran denied this.
Now! In August, Iran stated that it is now producing more uranium than the Deal allows. And Australian PM Scott Morrison has been speaking to both his mates Donald & Boris about sending Australian troops to patrol the Strait of Hormuz… so here we are with the potential to follow the US into yet another war based on very little evidence.
Wow!
Yep! Wow!
And in illustration of everything coming back around again: the US initially helped Iran set up their nuclear program in the 1950s...
🤦♀️
Tl;dr?
This is an entirely manufactured crisis and if we’re lucky another deal will be brokered with Iran that will prevent them from creating nuclear weapons, which won’t be as good as the first, but we will all still be alive.
If we’re not lucky? Well, the US has nuclear weapons and Iran has the ability to create them. Neither side is rational, mature, or behaving as you would hope governments should given the situation and likelihood of war with incredible consequences.
It’s anyone’s guess how this could end up. Let’s hope for option one.
(Side note: None of this would be happening if Iran didn’t have oil. And the fact that the US didn't honour a deal it brokered shows North Korea - another nuclear nation - that there's no point worrying about the US and their threats)
Fun Things
Read:
I meant to mention this last time, but a Pakistani politician accidentally livestreamed his press conference on facebook... with the cat ears filter applied. Honestly, it's too good.
When I was younger, Aung San Suu Kyi was my hero. I couldn't comprehend how she was sentenced to years of house arrest just for wanting democracy. She was the reason that I travelled to Myanmar in 2015, and the reason that I have always wanted to work towards an improved world. Yet here we are, with her (deserved) fall from grace. It's written by one of my favourite public servants/commentators, Ben Rhodes, too. Spend the 15 minutes - it is worth your while.
Watch:
#Goals. (you need the sound on)
Also goals.
There are a lot of depressing things going on in the world (see article above), so sometimes the combination of young kids and old people is exactly what you need. (And yes, of course I cried while I was watching this. Old people are the actual best).
And finally, Toni Morrison (vale) telling Jana Wendt a thing or two.
Listen:
I've been listening to The Grade Cricketer podcasts non-stop throughout the World Cup and now the Ashes. But it's a bit niche, even for this audience.
So please, listen to this episode of Ear Hustle, which also made me cry all the happy tears.
--------------
And if you're caught up in all the tough parts of life, here's a beautiful reminderabout the more important things.
As of August 15th 2019, 32 women in Australia have been killed due to domestic violence.
That is one death every 7 days.